GDSBlog: New York vs. New England - Super Bowl!

[Arlie Rahn]

Matchup: New York vs. New England
Line: New England -3
over/under: 54 points
Prediction: NYG 27, NE 24

The last time New England played, I picked the score exactly against Baltimore. Here's hoping that trend continues! My first impression when I saw the line was that the wrong team was favored. After doing some research, I'm even more convinced that is the case. When you look the history of the Giants under Tom Coughlin, the recent play of New England and some other trends, it all seems to point to a close Giants win. But, let's look at some of the numbers.

Right off the bat, two trends are pretty striking. Since 2002, the Giants are 8-0 against the spread (ATS) as a playoff underdog. No team has done a better job of covering the number than Coughlin's Giants. The Pats have a history of being this clutch team, but recently they have faltered in the big game as a favorite. Since 2007, New England is just 1-6 ATS as a playoff favorite. So, you have one team that has consistently come to play as an underdog and another who is underwhelming as a favorite.

The second item is something that came into play in the Baltimore game. The Pats have been getting an artifically pumped up line most of the season - especially right after a win. If New England is a favorite after winning the last game by 3 or more points this year, they are just 7-7 ATS. The Giants, on the other hand, have won their last 5 games and covered all 5 (3 as underdogs).

When the focus shifts to the on the field matchups, the pendulum also tilts towards New York. The Pats have struggled against decent quarterbacks all season. Against Buffalo, San Diego, Dallas, Pittsburgh and the Giants (all top 10 QBs by yards), NE was 3-3 and averaged giving up nearly 24 points. In the other 10 games against non top 10 QBs, they allowed under 20 and were 10-0. The Giants, on the other hand, have been very good against top QBs. Since Coughlin took over in 2004, the Giants are 19-3 ATS against teams who throw for 7.8 or more yards per attempt. As underdogs of 2 or more points against great QBs, they are 14-0 ATS! That's an amazing mark against top QBs.

Finally, New England has played in 4 Super Bowls in the Brady-Belichik. In all 4 Super Bowls, the winning team won by exactly 3 points. So, the odds are that this will be a close game. Combine this with the other trends and team performance, and it points to a close Giant win.

New York key trends:
Since 2002, NEW YORK GIANTS are 8-0 ATS as a playoff underdog.
When NEW YORK GIANTS team played as a Road team or neutral site team the last 5 years coming off a road win - they are 11-1 ATS and 10-2 overall.

New England key trends:
Since 2007, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS are 1-6 ATS as a playoff favorite.
NE is 3-7 ATS against the NFC East in last 10 games (1-3 against NYG)

Best bet: Giants +3. I think at worst case you push with a 3-point NE win.

Aggressive bet: Giants money line of +125. Not great value, but a bigger winner if you think the Giants will pull it out.

7 Props to consider:
1. Giants WR scoring the first TD. Cruz is 6-1, Nicks is 8-1 and Manningham is 14-1. I'd bet $10 on Cruz and Nicks, and $5 on Manningham. NE likes to defer and Giants like to take the ball, plus the Pats have been terrible at stopping the pass early in games. If any of these three score first, you win between $35 and $55. Not bad return on $25.

2. DJ Ware won't score a TD: -500. DJ didn't score a TD all season and hasn't gotten a carry since the Washington game on 12/18. Bet $50 and take your free $10. If that ends up going away, take the under 2 carries for -145 and get even more free money

3. Cruz over 5.5 receptions. In the last 13 games, Cruz has had over 5 catches in 9 of them. 2 he had exactly 5 and 2 he had under. If you look at games decided the Giants won by 7 or less or lost, he had atleast 6 catches in 8 of 9. If it's a close game, Cruz usually gets his catches.

4. B Jacobs under 33.5 yards rushing. In the past 4 games that Bradshaw has been healthy, Jacobs has gotten 16, 92, 22 and 13 yards rushing. The 92 was in the blowout against Atlanta and mostly came in mop up time.

5. A Bradshaw over 60.5 yards rushing. Since he's been healthy in the playoffs, Bradshaw has beaten this mark all 3 games, including an impressive 74 yards against the 49ers. He should be able to scamper for 61 yards against this Pats D.

6. Gronk over 70.5 yards. In the last 13 games, he's done this 10 times. The injury is causing a scare, but Gronk has managed 87, 145, 109 and 78 in the past 4 games. If he plays (and I think he will), he's getting 71 yards.

7. Aaron Hernandez under 3 rushing carries. Outside of the one Denver game (5 carries), Hernandez never had more than 3 rushes (and only tied once). The gimic worked well against Denver as no one had seen it, but Baltimore stuff them all 3 times they tried in the Conf champ. I doubt Belichik breaks this gimic out more than twice against a very good Giants front 7.

[angeldelayette]

Originally Posted by Arlie Rahn

So, you have one team that has consistently come to play as a favorite and another who is underwhelming as an underdog.

Definitely some interesting stuff here. But don't you mean the opposite here? That you have one team that has consistently come to play as an underdog and another who is underwhelming as a favorite?

[Arlie Rahn]

Thanks for the correction. I updated the post - minor brain fart there

[moon_lit_tears]

So I'm thinking Giants take it. I mean...those Mannings weren't birthed they came rushing out holding footballs!!

Not a Brady fan by any means but he's good at what he does (crying) but I think Eli wants it more!


Gronkowski apparently hasn't practiced all week. I don't think he's going to put up his usual numbers.

[Pokerking88]

Giants 34 Pats 30
I hope so at least.

[Timber]

Pats 30 Giants 17.

I don't have a dog in this fight as all my teams lost in the playoffs. I'm a Steelers fan myself and wanted at least to see the 49's come through. I hate Manning and even though the Pats aren't a favorite team, i'd rather they win than the Giants.

That said, Brady is way better than Mr "I'm an Elite Quarterback too, love me love me". I don't think that the Giants' D can hold him back. He'll walk the field taking time off the clock and scoring points. After the two week lay off before the game, i think it'll start slow with some 3 and outs but once the 2nd quarter starts it'll be all Pats.


Maybe next year for the Steelers. Just not the Ravens.

[moon_lit_tears]

Originally Posted by Timber

Pats 30 Giants 17.

I don't have a dog in this fight as all my teams lost in the playoffs. I'm a Steelers fan myself and wanted at least to see the 49's come through. I hate Manning and even though the Pats aren't a favorite team, i'd rather they win than the Giants.

That said, Brady is way better than Mr "I'm an Elite Quarterback too, love me love me". I don't think that the Giants' D can hold him back. He'll walk the field taking time off the clock and scoring points. After the two week lay off before the game, i think it'll start slow with some 3 and outs but once the 2nd quarter starts it'll be all Pats.


Maybe next year for the Steelers. Just not the Ravens.

Wait, what? You mean Crybaby Brady is better than Manning? Are you kidding me?

Steelers over Ravens? Wow, Ravens are my hometown team, but I'm not a fan of them by any means but I'd root for a bunch of cheerleaders before I even thought the Steelers had a chance of being an actually decent team.

[Timber]

Originally Posted by moon_lit_tears

Wait, what? You mean Crybaby Brady is better than Manning? Are you kidding me?

Steelers over Ravens? Wow, Ravens are my hometown team, but I'm not a fan of them by any means but I'd root for a bunch of cheerleaders before I even thought the Steelers had a chance of being an actually decent team.

That requires pistols at dawn my dear chap!

Eli has always been in his big brothers shadow. He's not that good, don't get me wrong he's a solid QB and can and has led his team to a Super Bowl win. That being said he makes too many easy mistakes that Brady doesn't. Brady is a great QB and he's much more careful with the ball. You won't see a lot of interceptions from him. Eli still gets rattled in the big games. While you can fluster Brady from time to time and you could see that this year, Brady has the confidence to get back into the game.

Yes Brady is in need of his binky from time to time and Belichik is an evil man who locks his players down so they never seem to have any fun. Hell the man finds a ton of faults when they win super bowls. He's the Anti-Dad of the NFL. I'll take the pats over giants on a neutral field any day of the week though.

Still i'll be playing TEW while i have the game on in the background, maybe my cat will watch it. I'll pass on the halftime show, if i want to see over the hill half talented women warble music, i know a club i can go to, cover price is reasonable.

[BHK1978]

Originally Posted by Timber

Eli has always been in his big brothers shadow. He's not that good, don't get me wrong he's a solid QB and can and has led his team to a Super Bowl win. That being said he makes too many easy mistakes that Brady doesn't. Brady is a great QB and he's much more careful with the ball. You won't see a lot of interceptions from him. Eli still gets rattled in the big games. While you can fluster Brady from time to time and you could see that this year, Brady has the confidence to get back into the game.

Are you posting from 2007?

Eli only had four more interceptions than Brady had this season. Yes he did have a lot of interceptions in 2010 but that was last season.

Your post seem to be directly from 2007. Eli still get rattled in big games?

Wasn't he the one that led his team downfield to win the Super Bowl? Isn't he the same guy that help lead his team to victories over the class of the NFC (Packers and 49ers)? Never mind the fact that he broke Johnny Unitas and his brother's record for most TD's in the 4th quarter. That is right he broke a record held by Johnny Unitas who is perhaps the greatest QB in the histroy of the NFL. So I am not really seeing how Eli gets rattled in big games.

I am a Giants fan and I have been one going back to the days of L.T. so I hope they win. If they don't that will suck but life goes on...well I am still a little pissed off over the fact that the Diamondbacks beat the Yankees in the 01 World Series...but yeah life goes on.

I don't hate the Patriots (well I do hate Brady...) I dislike their fans more than anything else. To me you will never find bigger bandwagon fans than Patriots fans. I have said it time and time again, when the Patriots sucked hardly anyone in New England gave a crap about them. In fact, in the late 1980's the hierarchy of the New England sports scene was the Red Sox on top, followed by the Celtics, the Bruins, and then in a very distant fourth place stood the Patriots. In the late 1980's the team couldn't draw flies.

Then Parcells and Bledsoe came along and the Pats started to win and all of a sudden all of these life long Patriots "fans" came out of the woodwork. Heck even Steve Grogan (the Patriots QB in the 1980's) said he wished the fans supported the team like they do now. I live a half hour or so from Foxboro, so I live near the eye of the storm. Over the last two weeks all I have had to listen to is how great the Patriots and their fans are and how loyal their fans are.

Which is just crazy talk. Before the Patriots became a dynasty most of the people that claim they are Patriots fans now, were actually Dolphins and Giants fans. Once the Patriots start to suck again all of these "fans" will flee that bandwagon.

End of rant...

[moon_lit_tears]

Originally Posted by Timber

That requires pistols at dawn my dear chap!

I'll warn you my dear even us girls know how to shoot a gun.

Originally Posted by BHK1978

Are you posting from 2007?

Eli only had four more interceptions than Brady had this season. Yes he did have a lot of interceptions in 2010 but that was last season.

Your post seem to be directly from 2007. Eli still get rattled in big games?

Wasn't he the one that led his team downfield to win the Super Bowl? Isn't he the same guy that help lead his team to victories over the class of the NFC (Packers and 49ers)? Never mind the fact that he broke Johnny Unitas and his brother's record for most TD's in the 4th quarter. That is right he broke a record held by Johnny Unitas who is perhaps the greatest QB in the histroy of the NFL. So I am not really seeing how Eli gets rattled in big games.

I am a Giants fan and I have been one going back to the days of L.T. so I hope they win. If they don't that will suck but life goes on...well I am still a little pissed off over the fact that the Diamondbacks beat the Yankees in the 01 World Series...but yeah life goes on.

I don't hate the Patriots (well I do hate Brady...) I dislike their fans more than anything else. To me you will never find bigger bandwagon fans than Patriots fans. I have said it time and time again, when the Patriots sucked hardly anyone in New England gave a crap about them. In fact, in the late 1980's the hierarchy of the New England sports scene was the Red Sox on top, followed by the Celtics, the Bruins, and then in a very distant fourth place stood the Patriots. In the late 1980's the team couldn't draw flies.

Then Parcells and Bledsoe came along and the Pats started to win and all of a sudden all of these life long Patriots "fans" came out of the woodwork. Heck even Steve Grogan (the Patriots QB in the 1980's) said he wished the fans supported the team like they do now. I live a half hour or so from Foxboro, so I live near the eye of the storm. Over the last two weeks all I have had to listen to is how great the Patriots and their fans are and how loyal their fans are.

Which is just crazy talk. Before the Patriots became a dynasty most of the people that claim they are Patriots fans now, were actually Dolphins and Giants fans. Once the Patriots start to suck again all of these "fans" will flee that bandwagon.

End of rant...

Stop posting my fights for me...LOL I was going to say a lot of the same things you did.

I don't see how Eli is living in his brothers shadow. Eli is a damn good QB, and his brother can't take that waay from him. I could see if they were on the same team, but they are infact in different teams, and If I'm correct on this Eli has been plaing his soul out every week, while his brother has been overplaying an injury. Just sayin.....

[Rayelek]

Definitely an interesting read. Where do people place these sorts of bets? I would definitely go on the Ware carries bit if nothing else.

[Apupunchau@optonline]

I'm from New York City and I hate the giants (although my girlfriend is a huge fan) but I hate the patriots even more. So for me its a lesser of two evils. A team that won't admit it actually plays and does all its team business in New Jersey or a team in a region that contains Boston. So I'm gonna go for The Giants to appease the little woman who is still upset from when my Saints beat them and I rubbed it in.

[Purple Cowboy]

Manning is a dumb Huckleberry who spazzes out and chucks the ball blindly as soon as there's the slightest bit of pressure. 8 years (?) in the league and he still doesn't have presence of mind to throw the ball away in certain situations. When not throwing a screen or simple pass in the flat he almost always throws the ball high or behind players and then blames them for dropping his passes. Or, he leads his receivers into blind hits because he locks in on one receiver and has no field vision. The fact that he has to throw 60/70 attempts per game in order to compile enough stats to be among the league leaders shows how bad he is.

That said, I'm a Giants fan. But they will only win if Eli gets out of the way. He'll still get all the credit anyway (there are morons who comment on the New York Daily News site that the Giants would be 1-15 without Eli), but if he's throwing 70 times again it's going to be a long day for the NYG.

[D-Lyrium]

Originally Posted by Purple Cowboy

Manning is a dumb Huckleberry who spazzes out and chucks the ball blindly as soon as there's the slightest bit of pressure.

I've watched all of about five games of American Football, but what the hell?

Manning has balls of steel, from what I've seen. Manning tonight, especially when it really mattered, was like a Vulcan.

And I massively enjoyed Brady having a nervous breakdown during the final minute. God I hate the Patriots. Gronkowski hobbling around like a lame horse and ending up costing the Pats the game at the end was also pleasing. Are they really that hard-up for receivers that they play a guy with one leg?

Manning and Manningham were phenomenal in the last quarter.

Anyway, PC. Are you enjoying being utterly wrong even though your team won?

[moon_lit_tears]

Originally Posted by Timber

Eli has always been in his big brothers shadow.

I believe that's 2 Lombardi trophies for Eli and one for Payton. For someone living in his brothers shadow he's doing pretty well.....